Kill this Sub-Forum

Tom Wilde · 03-10-2008, 12:26 AM

I was involved with UKIP - usually very peripherally - for about a decade from 1997 onwards. From memory, UKIP was pronounced definitely dead by political commentators on the following occasions:

1997 (aftermath of very unsuccessful GE election campaign, plus party leader resigned from the party claiming it had been infiltrated by extremists and advising others to resign too)

Afterwards, though the party was written off by the media, it stunned the pundits by winning three MEPs in 1999.

1999 (huge row between the then party leader and the NEC led to resignations of all concerned, and a split, and the loss of one of the three MEPs. Commentators claimed party was dead)

2000 (bitterly fought leadership election was followed by a walkout by many supporters of the runner-up)

2001 Under the new leader, the party pulled itself together and stood a record number of candidates in the 2001 GE, coming 5th in the popular vote after the SNP. Nonetheless, the commentators pointed out that the percentage vote (1.6%) was way down on the 7 percent gained in the 1999 EP election, and said the party was on its way out. The party gained very little media coverage in the following years.

2003 Two academics published a statistical study of political parties and elections for the European Parliament, proving beyond doubt that UKIP would lose all three of its seats in the 2004 EP elections. Widespread media reports of the study constituted the first national media coverage of UKIP for ages. I emailed the authors of the report and they kindly sent me a copy. I then pointed out some flaws in their analysis but they weren't really interested. I bet their faces were red the following year!

2005 In the GE UKIP again ran a record number of candidates and now came 4th in the popular vote (2.3%, +0.7%). Commentators pointed out that the percentage vote was way down on the 16 percent gained in the 2004 EP election, and talked about the "collapse" of the UKIP vote.

In the last few months I've seen some UKIP supporters, nearly all the BNP trolls here and now zbrahead all claiming that UKIP is definitely dead. Reckon that makes this, what, the 7th time UKIP has died? Curiously, each time the party dies it seems to be bigger than the previous time. Isn't that odd? If it dies a few more times, it'll be in government!

I no longer support UKIP, partly because I think its new policy on immigration and asylum deeply sucks, and because its general ideological positioning to the right of the Tories doesn't suit me. (What fool said it should develop a complete set of policies to become a proper party? Oh, damn - that was me!) However, though I've happily shifted my allegiance to the Liberal Party now, I won't make the mistake of writing UKIP off, because I've seen it come back and confound the punters too many times already!

T.N.Warry · 03-10-2008, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Wilde

I was involved with UKIP - usually very peripherally - for about a decade from 1997 onwards. From memory, UKIP was pronounced definitely dead by political commentators on the following occasions:

1997 (aftermath of very unsuccessful GE election campaign, plus party leader resigned from the party claiming it had been infiltrated by extremists and advising others to resign too)

Afterwards, though the party was written off by the media, it stunned the pundits by winning three MEPs in 1999.

1999 (huge row between the then party leader and the NEC led to resignations of all concerned, and a split, and the loss of one of the three MEPs. Commentators claimed party was dead)

2000 (bitterly fought leadership election was followed by a walkout by many supporters of the runner-up)

2001 Under the new leader, the party pulled itself together and stood a record number of candidates in the 2001 GE, coming 5th in the popular vote after the SNP. Nonetheless, the commentators pointed out that the percentage vote (1.6%) was way down on the 7 percent gained in the 1999 EP election, and said the party was on its way out. The party gained very little media coverage in the following years.

2003 Two academics published a statistical study of political parties and elections for the European Parliament, proving beyond doubt that UKIP would lose all three of its seats in the 2004 EP elections. Widespread media reports of the study constituted the first national media coverage of UKIP for ages. I emailed the authors of the report and they kindly sent me a copy. I then pointed out some flaws in their analysis but they weren't really interested. I bet their faces were red the following year!

2005 In the GE UKIP again ran a record number of candidates and now came 4th in the popular vote (2.3%, +0.7%). Commentators pointed out that the percentage vote was way down on the 16 percent gained in the 2004 EP election, and talked about the "collapse" of the UKIP vote.

In the last few months I've seen some UKIP supporters, nearly all the BNP trolls here and now zbrahead all claiming that UKIP is definitely dead. Reckon that makes this, what, the 7th time UKIP has died? Curiously, each time the party dies it seems to be bigger than the previous time. Isn't that odd? If it dies a few more times, it'll be in government!

I no longer support UKIP, partly because I think its new policy on immigration and asylum deeply sucks, and because its general ideological positioning to the right of the Tories doesn't suit me. (What fool said it should develop a complete set of policies to become a proper party? Oh, damn - that was me!) However, though I've happily shifted my allegiance to the Liberal Party now, I won't make the mistake of writing UKIP off, because I've seen it come back and confound the punters too many times already!

You are being very serious but what you say is of course true!
However predicting the death of UKIP on this thread was surely just a bit of fun!
The main point however is whether UKIP deserves to succeed in its current corrupt state and my answer to that is a resounding -NO.

Independent UKIP · 03-10-2008, 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T.N.Warry

However predicting the death of UKIP on this thread was surely just a bit of fun!

Niall, you must know who Zbrahead is in the real world in order to make such a claim. I don't seek to know who he/she is but would appreciate you or them confirming your explanation for the creation of the topic concerned. Thanks.

chikrodah · 03-10-2008, 06:31 AM

I don't think UKIP is dead or dying, either. I do, however, think it's going through a period of re-positioning which will see it develop as a replacement for (or adjunct of) the Monday Club. That will cause those UKIP members who do not espouse right-wing Tory policies to reconsider their options; I doubt, however, that their departure will cause the current hierarchy much lost sleep.

03-10-2008, 12:26 AM	#11 (permalink)
Tom Wilde Moderator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: London. Posts: 2,911	I was involved with UKIP - usually very peripherally - for about a decade from 1997 onwards. From memory, UKIP was pronounced definitely dead by political commentators on the following occasions: 1997 (aftermath of very unsuccessful GE election campaign, plus party leader resigned from the party claiming it had been infiltrated by extremists and advising others to resign too) Afterwards, though the party was written off by the media, it stunned the pundits by winning three MEPs in 1999. 1999 (huge row between the then party leader and the NEC led to resignations of all concerned, and a split, and the loss of one of the three MEPs. Commentators claimed party was dead) 2000 (bitterly fought leadership election was followed by a walkout by many supporters of the runner-up) 2001 Under the new leader, the party pulled itself together and stood a record number of candidates in the 2001 GE, coming 5th in the popular vote after the SNP. Nonetheless, the commentators pointed out that the percentage vote (1.6%) was way down on the 7 percent gained in the 1999 EP election, and said the party was on its way out. The party gained very little media coverage in the following years. 2003 Two academics published a statistical study of political parties and elections for the European Parliament, proving beyond doubt that UKIP would lose all three of its seats in the 2004 EP elections. Widespread media reports of the study constituted the first national media coverage of UKIP for ages. I emailed the authors of the report and they kindly sent me a copy. I then pointed out some flaws in their analysis but they weren't really interested. I bet their faces were red the following year! 2005 In the GE UKIP again ran a record number of candidates and now came 4th in the popular vote (2.3%, +0.7%). Commentators pointed out that the percentage vote was way down on the 16 percent gained in the 2004 EP election, and talked about the "collapse" of the UKIP vote. In the last few months I've seen some UKIP supporters, nearly all the BNP trolls here and now zbrahead all claiming that UKIP is definitely dead. Reckon that makes this, what, the 7th time UKIP has died? Curiously, each time the party dies it seems to be bigger than the previous time. Isn't that odd? If it dies a few more times, it'll be in government! I no longer support UKIP, partly because I think its new policy on immigration and asylum deeply sucks, and because its general ideological positioning to the right of the Tories doesn't suit me. (What fool said it should develop a complete set of policies to become a proper party? Oh, damn - that was me!) However, though I've happily shifted my allegiance to the Liberal Party now, I won't make the mistake of writing UKIP off, because I've seen it come back and confound the punters too many times already! Last edited by Tom Wilde; 03-10-2008 at 12:29 AM.

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03-10-2008, 06:31 AM	#14 (permalink)
chikrodah Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Midlands Posts: 1,709	I don't think UKIP is dead or dying, either. I do, however, think it's going through a period of re-positioning which will see it develop as a replacement for (or adjunct of) the Monday Club. That will cause those UKIP members who do not espouse right-wing Tory policies to reconsider their options; I doubt, however, that their departure will cause the current hierarchy much lost sleep.