mrabody

The problem with making positive predictions such as that UKIP will double its number of MEPs is that unless it, at the very least noticeably increases its number of MEPs (if not actually doubling them) it risks looking like a failure. If party members go out leafleting in the expectation that we are going to get 18-24 MEPs (depending on whether you are doubling the original number of 12 or the present number of 9) and in the end we only get 9.

It's much better to say (at least to party members) - look 2004 brought together a unique confluence of factors, RKS, large donations, the imminent implementation f the European Constitution, and struggling, unpopular Tory party, and therefore we should consider the present election campaign successful if we manage to retain most of the current 9 seats that we have.

Then if we have a good election campaign and capture 14 seats, we can claim to exceeded expectations.


As I've stated, I won't make a prediction at this time because the elections are still close to a year away and a lot can happen in that time. I think it would be wiser to ask this question in January.

__________________
Drew Belobaba,
UKIP PPC for Lewes
Almost as unelectable as Raymond Finch!

indigo

I don't think the prediction of doubling the number of MEP's will backfire. After the elections, the party will be in meltdown anyway, so the issue of wrong predictions isn't going to matter at all.

He could at least have made a slightly realistic optimistic prediction, like "We'll get 3% of the vote."

This seems like the GLA all over again. Crazy predictions of soaring improvements on previous elections, coupled with a reality of the same old 2% of the actual vote. How quickly were those predictions forgotten?

Face it. UKIP has been on a long downhill run. It's not going to magically spring back to life.

alfred the great

Ukip was very much promoted at the last euro elections by the right wing press.Unfortunately since then it has done poorly in local council elections.I feel it is downhill from now,and if it does poorly were will it go. The problem is many people can,t see what europe is doing to us,but are a liitle bit more focused on massive immigration to these shores.its a shame really ,we need as many ante votes as possible.Maybe some will go the BNP.

Jim Smith

4 seats followed by a decline seems the probable outcome. To answer Mrabody there is no new cash from Farage's contacts that he promised before his election so he can give up on that hope. The Tories are attracting all the cash and squeezing out UKIP.

The party is in decline and appears to have a civil war between its continuing MEPs/employees and anyone outside of the Farage clique. Why pick a fight with Robin Page? He is a media and party asset, not some threat to the party.

The John West affair required someone in charge to arrange a meeting to sort out the matter, insisting on closure after given West an apology. Instead we watch John West get increasingly irate because of the bad manners and disrespect that have been shown. Why have Whittaker/Merchant/Farage been so inept?

Is the real problem Farage's disorganisation which means that no one is clear on their roles?

T.N.Warry

Pretty much spot on IMO. Nigel is a good media performer but a useless Party leader and organiser. He hates admin and does not delegate. He became Party leader to ensure his way of operating was NOT challenged. The example he sets means his MEPs, like him, have all gone native.

Anthony Butcher

I think that it is valid to take a poll at the moment to see how people feel. It's not necessarily a 'prediction' as such, merely how you think the party will do if there are no major changes between now and June next year.

One would expect that there will be several major incidents between now and then (both positive and negative), and opinions will shift at those times.

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
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Anthony Butcher

I agree 100%. Far too many unnecessary problems created out of thin air.

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
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Tim Worstall

3%? 2% of the vote? Where on earth are those numbers coming from?

Last euros we got (from memory, an all too fallible thing) 2.6 million didn't we?

That's a great deal more than 2 or 3 % of the vote there.

kernow

On this forum, my what a surprise! I'd have been shocked if Nigel and UKIPs enemies on this forum, ( which is a high percentage of posters) voted any differently!
You should change the name of this forum to, Farage and UKIP United Bashers!

michael mcgough

If I didn't think we'd improve on last time I'd give up now.