Should UKIP abort its MEP strategy?

Aardvark · 03-08-2008, 10:58 AM

mrabody,

The recent by-election results show our vote declining in places such as Lincolnshire, where we really had a chance of making the final push to take seats. I know in Surrey and Sussex and Swindon there are moves going on to increase the vote, but in Oxfordshire we appear moribund. A committee member from where I live would rather indulge in the attempt to prosecute people for treason that is time barred and give succour to the convicted fraudster Mote by attending his meetings than fight elections in David Cameron's constituency. There is no national presence, no national effort and, for reasons discussed a thousand times, no national leadership.

If the Irish have not ratified the Lisbon treaty by the time of our next GE then Cameron's promise for a referendum will take half our votes. By winning back the marginals Cameron can deliver on a referendum; with 1% in the opinion polls UKIP will not be seen as able to achieve that and we will be pointed at as people who would ruin the chance of getting a referendum by splitting the vote. UKIP voters are largely disillusioned Tories; BNP are disillusioned Labour. A possible scenario is that suburban UKIP will be squeezed by Tory referendum promises whilst urban Labour sees BNP votes reducing its core vote. BNP will take 3 or 4 seats, we'll take none and the Tories will have free rein for a generation.

michael mcgough · 03-08-2008, 11:01 AM

"We should think about how to apply pressure to a changed Government NOW and take action when it has happened." Christina

Won't it be too late to take action once the Government is changed?Surely we must apply pressure now for once Cameron has achieved his main objective and is in situ we will have little leverage to steer him.

progcon.org · 03-08-2008, 11:09 AM

I definitely agree Mick that the focus now should be 100% on getting Cameron to pledge a referendum no-matter-what. For example, what would happen if the Czech President came out and supported Britain's need for a referendum. It would keep turning up the pressure on Cameron to deliver that pledge.

If that fails, then, in a hopefully tight general election, the BOO's may have a balance of power.

Everyone needs to put party politics aside for a moment and focus solely on the most-likely means to achieve our goal, not the most likely way to achieve it with our choice of party. This is about EU withdrawal, not UKIP nor the Tories.

Bob FM · 03-08-2008, 11:12 AM

Lets be honest here, Cameron was only calling for a Referendum because he knew he wouldn't get one, the Lib-dems, had to abstain from their perspective, because if they had declared their intention to vote as per their manifesto (yes) then it is reasonable to assume that at least 40 Labour backbenchers would have voted yes. In short the yes vote would of won, none of the 3 main parties really wanted that. I am sure Cameron is panicking at the moment, what if Brown does call an April election just to spite his party, given the January 2009 ratification process is unlikely now to happen, he will indeed have to pledge to hold a referendum, something as I say he really doesn't want.

progcon.org · 03-08-2008, 11:15 AM

Labour won't hold an early election even if they ditch Brown. The EU offers them a career once they get kicked out of government. They will hang on to ensure the LT is delivered.

Only a no-matter-what pledge from Cameron can derail it really. That is why, no matter how insincere Cameron's intentions, his pledge can be used now to corner him, as fall-out from that could damage his real goal of becoming PM.

progcon.org · 03-08-2008, 11:21 AM

We need to get diplomat-dealing Mick Mcgough on the case. Mick, if we could collect as many quotes from politicos in countries that have yet to ratify the LT, that state that they consider the LT would be dead in the water if Cameron called a referendum, we could present it on a site to pile the pressure on Cameron. I'm sure the press would lap it up.

Raymond Finch · 03-08-2008, 12:23 PM

You cannot trust the Tories. Least of all Cameron after the way he killed Bill Cash' amendment.
Don't forget the list:

MacMillan: Applied to the EEC.
Heath: Took us in.
Thatcher: Led the "Yes" referendum campaign and signed the SEA.
Major: Signed Maastricht.
Cameron: ?

The leadership of the Tory party is hopelessly compromised and corrupted by the "project". We cannot hope for ANY support in terms other than lies from them.
UKIP must stand and work for secession. If any of those Tory MPs who signed BOO had the courage of their convictions they would join Bob Spink. They do not therefore they cannot be relied upon.

progcon.org · 03-08-2008, 12:36 PM

No-one is suggesting trusting the Tories or Cameron, Ray.

The suggestion is to turn the screw on Cameron to deliver a public pledge (that we probably all agree he does not expect to deliver and thus was playing politics) by making him fear a public fall-out that could damage his chance of becoming PM.

The more people highlight how Cameron himself actually has the power to derail a treaty he has publicly pledged to oppose *before* ratification, the more dishonest he will publicly appear by not delivering.

It is time to turn up the heat on Mr Cameron. I'm sure most will agree that there is more chance of getting a referendum by cornering Cameron now that voting UKIP next year.

Raymond Finch · 03-08-2008, 12:44 PM

PC.
But Cameron will not give us a referendum, or if he was to do so, he would skew the question in such a way as to make the outcome beyond doubt. He will say anything now that will help his electoral chances and when he is elected PM he will ignore them and there will be nothing we can do about it. The only option I can see is to get UKIP MPs elected. The Conservative leadership will not give us what we want.

progcon.org · 03-08-2008, 01:14 PM

Ray,
Cameron's pledge is unequivocal. He has pledged to give the British people a vote on the Lisbon Treaty, and has pledged to campaign for a 'no' vote. That couldn't be any clearer.

We agree that he doesn't probably actually want such a referendum, or expects to have to deliver such a referendum (by adding that it will only be offered if the LT has not already been ratified by all member states) but the wording of the pledge is in writing (unlike his immediate EPP withdrawal pledge).

Therefore Cameron has created a rod to beat him with. For someone to publicly state that he opposes something, if we can show that he could stop it happening, he will clearly appear incredibly dishonest by not delivering, and thus could lose a lot of public support.

This is the area that we should be focussing on now.

UKIP is never going to get elected MP's. There is simply no electoral evidence to support that UKIP is progressing in this direction.

I am sure you are not seriously suggesting that UKIP can gain MP's before the LT is ratified by all member states and I am also sure we all agree that preventing the ratification of the LT will seriously damage the EU.

The focus now should be 100% on stopping full ratification of the LT, imho.

03-08-2008, 10:58 AM	#41 (permalink)
Aardvark Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Oxonia Posts: 3,973	mrabody, The recent by-election results show our vote declining in places such as Lincolnshire, where we really had a chance of making the final push to take seats. I know in Surrey and Sussex and Swindon there are moves going on to increase the vote, but in Oxfordshire we appear moribund. A committee member from where I live would rather indulge in the attempt to prosecute people for treason that is time barred and give succour to the convicted fraudster Mote by attending his meetings than fight elections in David Cameron's constituency. There is no national presence, no national effort and, for reasons discussed a thousand times, no national leadership. If the Irish have not ratified the Lisbon treaty by the time of our next GE then Cameron's promise for a referendum will take half our votes. By winning back the marginals Cameron can deliver on a referendum; with 1% in the opinion polls UKIP will not be seen as able to achieve that and we will be pointed at as people who would ruin the chance of getting a referendum by splitting the vote. UKIP voters are largely disillusioned Tories; BNP are disillusioned Labour. A possible scenario is that suburban UKIP will be squeezed by Tory referendum promises whilst urban Labour sees BNP votes reducing its core vote. BNP will take 3 or 4 seats, we'll take none and the Tories will have free rein for a generation. __________________ When in Woking do as the Wokes do. "I do not wish to form my opinions by thoughtlessly quoting others; I wish others to support their opinions by sensibly quoting me." Paul Wesson (Aardvark) 13th April 2008

03-08-2008, 12:36 PM	#48 (permalink)
progcon.org Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 934	No-one is suggesting trusting the Tories or Cameron, Ray. The suggestion is to turn the screw on Cameron to deliver a public pledge (that we probably all agree he does not expect to deliver and thus was playing politics) by making him fear a public fall-out that could damage his chance of becoming PM. The more people highlight how Cameron himself actually has the power to derail a treaty he has publicly pledged to oppose before ratification, the more dishonest he will publicly appear by not delivering. It is time to turn up the heat on Mr Cameron. I'm sure most will agree that there is more chance of getting a referendum by cornering Cameron now that voting UKIP next year. Last edited by progcon.org; 03-08-2008 at 12:38 PM.

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03-08-2008, 11:01 AM	#42 (permalink)
michael mcgough Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Essex Posts: 944	"We should think about how to apply pressure to a changed Government NOW and take action when it has happened." Christina Won't it be too late to take action once the Government is changed?Surely we must apply pressure now for once Cameron has achieved his main objective and is in situ we will have little leverage to steer him.

03-08-2008, 11:09 AM	#43 (permalink)
progcon.org Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 934	I definitely agree Mick that the focus now should be 100% on getting Cameron to pledge a referendum no-matter-what. For example, what would happen if the Czech President came out and supported Britain's need for a referendum. It would keep turning up the pressure on Cameron to deliver that pledge. If that fails, then, in a hopefully tight general election, the BOO's may have a balance of power. Everyone needs to put party politics aside for a moment and focus solely on the most-likely means to achieve our goal, not the most likely way to achieve it with our choice of party. This is about EU withdrawal, not UKIP nor the Tories.

03-08-2008, 11:12 AM	#44 (permalink)
Bob FM Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Marston Swindon Posts: 1,787	Lets be honest here, Cameron was only calling for a Referendum because he knew he wouldn't get one, the Lib-dems, had to abstain from their perspective, because if they had declared their intention to vote as per their manifesto (yes) then it is reasonable to assume that at least 40 Labour backbenchers would have voted yes. In short the yes vote would of won, none of the 3 main parties really wanted that. I am sure Cameron is panicking at the moment, what if Brown does call an April election just to spite his party, given the January 2009 ratification process is unlikely now to happen, he will indeed have to pledge to hold a referendum, something as I say he really doesn't want.

03-08-2008, 11:15 AM	#45 (permalink)
progcon.org Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 934	Labour won't hold an early election even if they ditch Brown. The EU offers them a career once they get kicked out of government. They will hang on to ensure the LT is delivered. Only a no-matter-what pledge from Cameron can derail it really. That is why, no matter how insincere Cameron's intentions, his pledge can be used now to corner him, as fall-out from that could damage his real goal of becoming PM.

03-08-2008, 11:21 AM	#46 (permalink)
progcon.org Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 934	We need to get diplomat-dealing Mick Mcgough on the case. Mick, if we could collect as many quotes from politicos in countries that have yet to ratify the LT, that state that they consider the LT would be dead in the water if Cameron called a referendum, we could present it on a site to pile the pressure on Cameron. I'm sure the press would lap it up.

03-08-2008, 12:23 PM	#47 (permalink)
Raymond Finch Senior Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 515	You cannot trust the Tories. Least of all Cameron after the way he killed Bill Cash' amendment. Don't forget the list: MacMillan: Applied to the EEC. Heath: Took us in. Thatcher: Led the "Yes" referendum campaign and signed the SEA. Major: Signed Maastricht. Cameron: ? The leadership of the Tory party is hopelessly compromised and corrupted by the "project". We cannot hope for ANY support in terms other than lies from them. UKIP must stand and work for secession. If any of those Tory MPs who signed BOO had the courage of their convictions they would join Bob Spink. They do not therefore they cannot be relied upon.

03-08-2008, 12:44 PM	#49 (permalink)
Raymond Finch Senior Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 515	PC. But Cameron will not give us a referendum, or if he was to do so, he would skew the question in such a way as to make the outcome beyond doubt. He will say anything now that will help his electoral chances and when he is elected PM he will ignore them and there will be nothing we can do about it. The only option I can see is to get UKIP MPs elected. The Conservative leadership will not give us what we want.

03-08-2008, 01:14 PM	#50 (permalink)
progcon.org Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 934	Ray, Cameron's pledge is unequivocal. He has pledged to give the British people a vote on the Lisbon Treaty, and has pledged to campaign for a 'no' vote. That couldn't be any clearer. We agree that he doesn't probably actually want such a referendum, or expects to have to deliver such a referendum (by adding that it will only be offered if the LT has not already been ratified by all member states) but the wording of the pledge is in writing (unlike his immediate EPP withdrawal pledge). Therefore Cameron has created a rod to beat him with. For someone to publicly state that he opposes something, if we can show that he could stop it happening, he will clearly appear incredibly dishonest by not delivering, and thus could lose a lot of public support. This is the area that we should be focussing on now. UKIP is never going to get elected MP's. There is simply no electoral evidence to support that UKIP is progressing in this direction. I am sure you are not seriously suggesting that UKIP can gain MP's before the LT is ratified by all member states and I am also sure we all agree that preventing the ratification of the LT will seriously damage the EU. The focus now should be 100% on stopping full ratification of the LT, imho.