a swansong 4 europe

It reads more like the picking of the UKIP carcass and scraping the bones away, taking the good flesh and leaving the fat behind.

I am not surprised that many (?) UKIPers have or are contemplating leaving UKIP and joining the Liberals (presumably the left-over rump of what became the Lib Dems), as they are the most well known anti-EU (but globalist ?) party of the centre. It seems a far more palatable option to some than joining the BNP or similar.

I have as yet to see a substantial Liberal Party Westminster result outside of Liverpool, and wait to see if they actually are in fact just another spluttering conveyance carrying even more people to political obscurity.

Mikeuk

Outside Liverpool this miniparty has no following at all.

Forget about it.

a swansong 4 europe

But there are those on this forum that do seem to think they have mileage outside of Liverpool, so why should they think any other "Liberal" collective should do better?

Millennium3

The question is - where will all of the UKIP activists go when it is clear that UKIP has no future as an influential party - as is looking to be the most likely outcome? Will they just drift away and be lost to politics? Some on the right will stay with UKIP - they never seemed to be concerned that UKIP could not be successful with its political positioning. Some will grit their teeth and go with the BNP, but what will happen to the majority? A developed Liberal Party seems the best option if they are to remain as activists, but is the LP prepared to accommodate them?

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Master Rinzai advised: If you meet a swordsman on the road, show him your sword. Do not offer your poem to a man who is not a poet.

a swansong 4 europe

Until UKIP loses all of its EU seats, the party will continue no matter how much of a rump that may be. Even if the membership deserted in the droves, a small band of elected EU MEPs for UKIP could still manage to maintain some sort of party machine funded almost completely out of their own pockets, if necessary.

The question would be, what would happen, if, after losing some, not necessarily all, of their MEPs, and on the back of worsening election results and falling membership (no doubt that will become apparent by the middle of 2009) some of their remaining elected representatives decided, either to become "independents" or jumped ship to another party?

This is a VERY likely scenario at the moment for UKIP, as there is little good news in the offing, as the next few by-elections will undoubtedly highlight.

Millennium3

Yes Ukip are betting everything on good Euro election results - that's some gamble - all or nothing.

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Master Rinzai advised: If you meet a swordsman on the road, show him your sword. Do not offer your poem to a man who is not a poet.

a swansong 4 europe

How sad is that? And how sad is that, that many in UKIP still actually think that? I look back on posts through the years of this forum and have seen so many, many posts of encouragement, whether from MKP Davies, or Britannist or any number of others (that no longer post here for any number of supposed reasons) all championing the potential of UKIP. All, for nothing, it seems.

It is so easy for UKIP members and supporters to blame the likes of the BNP or its supporters for 'taking over' this forum (and on the basis of their past results, why shouldn't they portray a triumphant attitude?), but in reality, it is the UKIP leadership that has repeatedly let them down and betrayed their hard work and efforts through the years with dismal results and embarrassing gaffs that have made their way to the public domain.

Had UKIP been successful, things would be oh, so very different, but they have not, and a demoralised membership is struggling to cope with the consequences. I actually feel very, very sorry for those people, and wish things would have turned out different for them, who wouldn't? There HAS to be at least one party that carries the flag against the EU, but UKIP have slowly but surely let go of their grip, and others are advancing to who knows where with their own banners.

As for a Liberal champion to take over from where UKIP left off, I don't think so, they are simply TOO internationalist for my liking, and it was that attitude that took Britain into the Common Market in the first place.

Millennium3

Yes the LP would have to adapt itself significantly to accommodate UKIP members.

The simple truth of UKIP is that NF wanted to use the party to change TORY policy - which has happened to an extent, but not nearly enough also the financial benefit of being an MEP proved irresistible, as it needed to develop a domestic agenda with its leader in the UK. I think they have boxed themselves into a corner without an escape route.

I wonder what the political betting odds of UKIP equalling their 2004 results are.

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Master Rinzai advised: If you meet a swordsman on the road, show him your sword. Do not offer your poem to a man who is not a poet.

Tom Wilde

Yes, I can imagine that. Judging by your past postings I think the Liberal Party is unlikely to capture your vote, and to be honest I think we're fairly relaxed about that. However, there are actually a very large number of us liberal-minded internationalists in this country, and a decent percentage of us can see that the EU is neither liberal nor democratic. So who are we supposed to vote for?

That's why I think that in the long run the Liberal Party's prospects are bright. Yes, I think it will pick up some more people from UKIP's liberal wing, given UKIP's recent tack to the right. But I think most of its potential attraction is among voters who have never been in UKIP, and have voted Lib Dem while having deep reservations about that party's uncritical EUphoria.

a swansong 4 europe

The problem is, Tom, is that having destroyed/replaced one internationalist federal body, the prospect of replacing it with another one is likely to be the long term aim of those Liberal internationalists that dominate the Liberal elite, only that next time, they will 'get it right'.

It is not a case of not getting my vote, but more of honesty in the long-term aims of any party's agenda in areas critical to its philosophy. If I thought the Liberals would take us out of Europe and allow us the privilege of some sort of Swiss style neutrality, then fair enough. But if it is simply to "reform" the EU with another new, super improved mark II type EU, then no, it would not get my support.