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EU officals expect Ireland to hold second Lisbon Treaty referendum
European Union officials expect Ireland to cave in and hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in Autumn 2009.

By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels
Last Updated: 8:51PM BST 10 Sep 2008
An internal EU briefing paper, entitled The Solution to the Irish Problem, predicts that Dublin will accede to the re-run at a meeting of Europe's leaders on October 15.
Ireland has been under French and German pressure to hold a second vote and Autumn 2009 has emerged as the favoured date among officials and diplomats ahead of the European Union summit on the future of the Lisbon Treaty next month.
Ireland has refused to deny that a second referendum could occur, following the 'No' vote in June.
The document has been written by an influential group of French officials, called Le Amis du Traite de Lisbonne or Friends of the Lisbon Treaty.
According to the briefing, a second Irish vote will follow a guarantee that Ireland will not lose its European Commissioner and "declarations" on neutrality, abortion and taxation - all issues that dominated the Irish campaign.
"The second Irish referendum could take place, on this new basis, during Autumn 2009, pushing back the coming into force of the Treaty of Lisbon until 2010," says the document.
The text, by a senior European official called Jean-Guy Giraud, who is based in Paris, is widely regarded as reflecting the view in France, current holder of the EU's rotating presidency.
Other EU officials have confirmed that next year's Autumn referendum fixture is gaining ground in informal and formal talks between diplomats ahead of the summit next month.
"This date is the one being mentioned in discussions," said a source.
Ireland's referendum rejection on June 12 means that the Lisbon Treaty can not enter into force until all the EU's 27 countries have ratified it.
Ireland is looking increasingly isolated as ratification has continued across the EU and, barring technicalities, the Lisbon Treaty has now been approved in 24 countries.
The Lisbon Treaty has a controversial past as the successor to the EU Constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters three years ago.
Like its Constitution forebear, the Lisbon Treaty creates an EU President, a "foreign minister" and establishes an European diplomatic servive.
Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France, met with senior Euro-MPs over lunch in Paris to discuss the Lisbon Treaty and other issues.
President Sarkozy is planning a visit to Dublin in December "with a message for the Irish", by which time the Lisbon Treaty is expected to have been ratified in all EU countries except Ireland.
"It is clear that the only question over a second referendum for Sarkozy is that of timing," said one MEP at the lunch.
Hans-Gert Pottering, President of the European Parliament, is still pushing for the Irish to vote again before euro-elections next year amid fears that the Europe-wide poll will become a referendum on the unpopular EU Treaty.
"The President of the European Parliament has - several times - wished that the Treaty of Lisbon enters into force before June 2009 (in practice, in March 2009 at the latest for the organisation of the poll in the member states)," says the briefing document.
An Irish spokeswoman said: "The government position is no decision has been taken. All options are on the table."
Key to a deal on a second Irish vote will be the issue of the future size of the European Commission, because the Lisbon Treaty envisaged a cut in the number of Commissioners by 2014.
While the current Nice Treaty preserves the one country, one commissioner principle it also states that when the EU consists of 27 countries the "commission shall be less than the number of member states".
The current European Commission's term expires at the end of next October and talks on how to manage the appointment of a new EU executive, whether under Nice or Lisbon rules, are underway.
Diplomats have considered extending the current Commission's mandate into early 2010, clearing the way for a second referendum in October next year.
Also on the table, according to the briefing paper, will be "a political declaration confirming that the Treaty of Lisbon does not jeopardise Irish neutrality, or the rule of unanimity on tax matters and will not oblige Ireland to modify its legislation on abortion".
The same issues were also identified as key to Irish voters in research published by Ireland's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin.
"The main issues of concern are the composition of the Commission, the corporate tax base, workers' rights, neutrality and abortion were factors," he said.

EU officals expect Ireland to hold second Lisbon Treaty referendum - Telegraph