No.
Yes.
Extremely doubtfull.
Who are the bnp?
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After all the bnp predictions about themselve and really beating ukip in the EU Elections a few days ago,does any sane person on here think the bnp can win a seat in Westminster in the GE,or will they just nosedive again into the sheeeet they seem to crawl from?
Due to the structure of the electoral system I would say it is highly unlikely.Originally Posted by Keyser Soze
Since you clearly enjoy slinging insulting language around, maybe you like to answer this:
"Does any sane person on here think UKIP can win a seat in Westminster in the GE,or will they just nosedive again into the sheeeet they seem to crawl from?"
I would say that "sheeeet" very well describes the internecine mud-wrestling that takes up most of UKIP's time between national elections.
You appear to be one of those people on here who constantly belittle the BNP, opine that they have no future and little support, and yet expend an enormous amount of time and energy in joining in topics about the party.
The answer to your question is that it is unlikely that the BNP will win an electoral contest in a first past the post system while UKIP will definately not. There is an outside chance for the BNP in Stoke and Barking and Dagenham, while the Greens of all the minor parties will spring a surprise and win in Brighton.
Stop kidding yourself. There's no chance for the BNP in Stoke beyond council members unless they start wearing Labour rosettes. No chance at all. Zero.
Do you agree with my assessment for UKIP's chances? I base the Greens chance in Brighton based on their last GE performance in Brighton Pavilion of 27% and the fact they won more votes than any other party there. Brighton is my home town by the way.
Yep.
I was pointing out that if you had two parties standing in Stoke...
A) Labour.
B) We'll give each person ten million quid cash, no taxes forever, free surgery to make all the blokes look like Brad Pitt and all the girls look like Cheryl Tweedy/Cole, and free cake for everyone Party.
...Labour would still be elected.
In response to this semi-literate poll introduction, I'd say a few things:
The BNP vote never "nosedived". It went up, from 4.9%, to 6.1%. A vote can't "nosedive" up. Most pundits were expecting 5-10% for the BNP.
Many pundits on Vote-2007 were predicting disaster for UKIP. Of course, they were incorrect, but for a long time, it looked like it was headed that way. It was by no means foolish to make such predictions, however.
The BNP does indeed have a chance in a few places, such as its stronghold around Barking & Dagenham, and Stoke. It's by no means assured that they'll win anywhere, but they do have a few chances. The big difference to their progress has been their success at the Euro elections.
I assume UKIP will go back to faring poorly at non-EU elections. It would fit the pattern that's developed.
While any serious UKIPper should be most relieved and heartened by the maintenance of their position in the EU parliament, they should also be very aware of the rapidly growing strength of the BNP, which is fighting for much of the same ground.
The point is, surely, that whereas the BNP has some strongholds (mainly areas populated by disconsolate working class voters) UKIP is far less likely to secure similar strongholds where they might in theory have an outside chance of gaining a seat under FPTP.
Their best chance would seem to be the remaining angry fishermen of the West Country.
The fact that several UKIP supporters here are such keen supporters of FPTP suggests that whether or not the BNP are "The Dirty Party" UKIP have enthusiastically seized the Tories "Stupid Party" crown.
Unlikely the BNP will win a seat in the GE, but not impossible.
UKIP will not win one.
The expenses story gave UKIP the best chance it has ever had, and they did do well. But the top and bottom of it is they increased their number of seats by one.
I am afraid most who voted UKIP in the Euro election will go back to the other parties. The expenses story will be forgotten, the public has the memory of a Goldfish.
Taking nothing away from UKIP, they got 13 seats, when before the expenses story they appeared dead in the water.
I am over the moon with two BNP MEPs, just a few years ago that would have been a dream.
The thing is, all the attention is still on the BNP MEPs, while UKIP seem to have been forgotten.
If they are wise, they will not forget that fact.
If the expenses scandal had not erupted, I think UKIP would have been lucky to keep more than three or four seats.
The BNP would have won their two, and I think perhaps a couple more, but those votes migrated to UKIP.
Now will UKIP actually achieve something? I doubt it, somehow.
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