Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher
I see not too many people share Farage's optimism that UKIP will double its number of MEPs.
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The problem with making positive predictions such as that UKIP will double its number of MEPs is that unless it, at the very least noticeably increases its number of MEPs (if not actually doubling them) it risks looking like a failure. If party members go out leafleting in the expectation that we are going to get 18-24 MEPs (depending on whether you are doubling the original number of 12 or the present number of 9) and in the end we only get 9.
It's much better to say (at least to party members) - look 2004 brought together a unique confluence of factors, RKS, large donations, the imminent implementation f the European Constitution, and struggling, unpopular Tory party, and therefore we should consider the present election campaign successful if we manage to retain most of the current 9 seats that we have.
Then if we have a good election campaign and capture 14 seats, we can claim to exceeded expectations.
As I've stated, I won't make a prediction at this time because the elections are still close to a year away and a lot can happen in that time. I think it would be wiser to ask this question in January.