I can't say as there are too many variables.
Will Nigel succeed in finding some large donors to finance a strong euro election campaign?
Will our candidates, particularly those near the top of the respective lists prove to be hard working and effective campaigners?
Will Declan Ganley stand Libertas candidates here in the UK?
Will UKIP activists stand a lot of candidates in next years County Council and Unitary Authority elections and run strong campaigns?
Will Nigel be able to attract a star candidate of the stature of RKS?
Will some scandal engulf UKIP between now and the election?
Will some scandal engulf one or more of the three establishment parties?
Will public dissatisfaction with New Labour cause them to stampede to the Tories?
These are all factors that can, and will have a bearing on UKIPs results in next year's Euro elections. To try and forecast now is difficult. We can but guess.
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Drew Belobaba,
UKIP PPC for Lewes
Almost as unelectable as Raymond Finch!
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