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Clippo · 19-08-2008, 06:45 PM

YCHTT,
You don’t appear to understand the difference between ‘Trends’ and ‘Natural variability in any system.
I’ll try to spell it out again :-

In the ‘ice-melt system’, every summer the polar ice-caps melt a bit then in the following winter, they re-freeze.

Many factors go into this melting & re-freezing process. For example, the main ones are atmospheric temperature and ocean temperatures. However, weather & ocean circulations are ‘naturally variable’ so that in year A, say when the atmosphere & oceans deliver fractionally less heat to the poles, melting will be less. However, in year B the atmos. & oceans might deliver much more heat and therefore melting will be excessive.
So the ‘natural cycle’ will continue over a period of decades, and using universally accepted mathematical techniques and in the absence of any ‘non-natural’ factors, it is possible to draw an average, LEVEL line through the successive see-saw data.

In the present state of the polar ice system, if one tried to draw an average line through the observed data for the last 2-3 decades, (for which there have been reasonably reliable measurements of how the ice has changed), you wouldn’t get a LEVEL straight line, but one SLOPING UPWARDS. This is known as a TREND.

So, what’s the accepted cause of this trend ?

Obviously, & accepted by the majority, it is the extra heat put into the atmos. & ocean systems - again by common consent to be due CO2 forcings.

Next year, the ice may or may not be less than this year. It may even be less than 2007 or it may be somewhere in between 2007-2008. But in all probability, because of the extra heat put into the system by AGW, successive ice-melts will, on average get greater & greater until the Arctic, at least in 10-20 years will be ice-free in summer.

If you call that ‘shouting’ from the roof tops’, so be it – but it is nowhere near as shrill as the pathetic squeals of the contrarians.

19-08-2008, 06:45 PM	#16 (permalink)
Clippo Uber Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Cheshire Posts: 2,441	YCHTT, You don’t appear to understand the difference between ‘Trends’ and ‘Natural variability in any system. I’ll try to spell it out again :- In the ‘ice-melt system’, every summer the polar ice-caps melt a bit then in the following winter, they re-freeze. Many factors go into this melting & re-freezing process. For example, the main ones are atmospheric temperature and ocean temperatures. However, weather & ocean circulations are ‘naturally variable’ so that in year A, say when the atmosphere & oceans deliver fractionally less heat to the poles, melting will be less. However, in year B the atmos. & oceans might deliver much more heat and therefore melting will be excessive. So the ‘natural cycle’ will continue over a period of decades, and using universally accepted mathematical techniques and in the absence of any ‘non-natural’ factors, it is possible to draw an average, LEVEL line through the successive see-saw data. In the present state of the polar ice system, if one tried to draw an average line through the observed data for the last 2-3 decades, (for which there have been reasonably reliable measurements of how the ice has changed), you wouldn’t get a LEVEL straight line, but one SLOPING UPWARDS. This is known as a TREND. So, what’s the accepted cause of this trend ? Obviously, & accepted by the majority, it is the extra heat put into the atmos. & ocean systems - again by common consent to be due CO2 forcings. Next year, the ice may or may not be less than this year. It may even be less than 2007 or it may be somewhere in between 2007-2008. But in all probability, because of the extra heat put into the system by AGW, successive ice-melts will, on average get greater & greater until the Arctic, at least in 10-20 years will be ice-free in summer. If you call that ‘shouting’ from the roof tops’, so be it – but it is nowhere near as shrill as the pathetic squeals of the contrarians.