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Originally Posted by Aardvark
mrabody,
The recent by-election results show our vote declining in places such as Lincolnshire, where we really had a chance of making the final push to take seats. I know in Surrey and Sussex and Swindon there are moves going on to increase the vote, but in Oxfordshire we appear moribund. A committee member from where I live would rather indulge in the attempt to prosecute people for treason that is time barred and give succour to the convicted fraudster Mote by attending his meetings than fight elections in David Cameron's constituency. There is no national presence, no national effort and, for reasons discussed a thousand times, no national leadership.
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You paint a dismal picture - perhaps we should all give up on UKIP, go home and concentrate on more important things (sailing, piano, and car restoration in my case. I can't created a national presence, a national effort, or national leadership. I
have made proposals as to what I believe I can do at a regional level to make UKIP more competitive. I hear a lot of complaining and a lot of quibbling from lots of people on this forum but rarely any constructive solutions to UKIP's problems, or even constructive criticisms of my ideas and platform.
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If the Irish have not ratified the Lisbon treaty by the time of our next GE then Cameron's promise for a referendum will take half our votes. By winning back the marginals Cameron can deliver on a referendum; with 1% in the opinion polls UKIP will not be seen as able to achieve that and we will be pointed at as people who would ruin the chance of getting a referendum by splitting the vote. UKIP voters are largely disillusioned Tories; BNP are disillusioned Labour. A possible scenario is that suburban UKIP will be squeezed by Tory referendum promises whilst urban Labour sees BNP votes reducing its core vote. BNP will take 3 or 4 seats, we'll take none and the Tories will have free rein for a generation.
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Whilst there are lots of disillusioned Tories who become UKIPers, UKIP voters tend to be former Labour voters. UKIPs elected councillors are all located in areas that are traditionally Labour.
Will Cameron promise a Referendum? Perhaps. But so far he has been a bit of a wet noodle when it comes to the EU. We will have to see. Also, if the BNP couldn't capitalize on anti-Labour sentiment in this years local elections to capture 40+ seats then what makes you think they can mount a region-wide campaign in any part of the country for the Euro elections.