Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland
While your clearly well informed I do not believe I'm being cynical.
America do though. All they had to do is convince the world that they're lives, liberties, families and future were in the gravest and most immediate danger.
The plans to go into the middle east have been there for years. Thats not some bit of nut job conspiracy even many American politicians will admit to that.
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I have actually had the pleasure of examining the situation in Iraq on the ground as I spent a period working there a few years back.
I am sympathetic to the view that at least a substantial part of America's motivation for the invasion of Iraq was the attraction of having a client state with a large American military presence slap bang in the middle of the Middle East and its oil reserves. This along with the chance to administer a punishment beating was an attractive proposition to American Geo-politicians. I also find the idea that the Iraqi attempt to trade oil in Euros rather than dollars was a serious spur to American actions very persuasive. However it also seems to me that these were eminantely sensible reasons to blast Iraq. It is a dim refection on the West that our elites can not make the case with any confidence of getting support of the people on this basis rather than with pathetic lies.
Having said that I also believe the "democratic evangelism" also played a significant part. And that if Iraq had become a successful oil state democracy then that would have been a major victory for the West and its values. However clearly this is not going to be the case.
As for the American willingness to go to war again. I think that Iraq was a massive risk in that it stood a chance of reawakening American isolationism and pacifism which was barely dozing after Vietnam. I believe that the American people would find it difficult to support another war, particularly in Iran. Given the low opinion most of the American populace hold of their government and their justified suspicion of its motives I think that it would be all but impossible to mobalize them even in the event of another 9/11 or worse.
Moreover I think that American intolerance of even very light casualties is such that they will be driven out of the Middle East in the next few years. Once that happens then the Pax Americana is over. That is assuming that America is in any position to continue the occupation of Iraq economically as this crisis deepens.
I have a strong suspicion that Iran and other share my analysis, otherwise they would hardly be provoking the Americans quite so enthusiastically in Iraq.
Another point which deserves serious consideration is that the populations of the West are so squeamish about war that they are effectively incapable of fighting in a sufficiently violent manor to achieve results. This has allowed the development of "4th generation" warfare in which the conventional military power of the West is all but useless, if not actually a liability. As long as the West remains in the mindset that wars can be won by being nice then the chances of victory in any conflict are remote.
Here a link to a clip which sums up the world's Geo-political situation much better than I could. Rob Newman on Iraq.